The final grand slam of the season (the US Open) begins today and all eyes will be on Novak Djokovic. With Federer, Nadal and defending champion Thiem all absent through injury, can Novak take advantage to win not only his 21st major (which would move him ahead of Federer and Nadal for no. of Grand Slams won), but also complete, for the first time in his illustrious career, the Calendar Slam? If he succeeds, he will join Rod Laver and Don Budge as the only male tennis players in history to achieve the feat - winning all four Grand Slams within the same season.
Djokovic will be fancying his chances, but don’t underestimate the array of Next Gen talent, who are in-form and have the weaponry to trouble Novak in the latter rounds: Medvedev, Zverev, Tsitsipas to name but a few. It will be interesting to see how it all pans out and below are my predictions for the fortnight ahead:
QUARTER 1:
Projected: Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Matteo Berrettini (6)
H2H: Djokovic leads their h2h 3-0
Novak headlines the draw and begins his quest to make history against Danish qualifier Holger Rune. Qualifiers can always pose a challenge in the first round, as they are more conditioned to the surface, having played 3 qualifying matches the week before. However, this is Novak Djokovic we’re talking about and unfortunately for Rune I think quality will show and Djokovic will win this one fairly comfortably. In the next round, Djokovic will likely face Jan Lennard Struff - a familiar opponent for Djokovic at the Slams. Novak has played Struff at 3 different Slams before, including last years US Open, and won all 3, so I would expect more of the same, if this match up materialises. Round 3, though, is where it starts to get tough for Djokovic, who won’t be best pleased for what the draw gods have provided him, as he could face either former top 10 player David Goffin or more likely the talented Kei Nishikori. Nishikori vs. Djokovic would’ve been a Grand Slam Quarter Final level encounter 5 years ago, but the Japanese player has struggled in recent seasons and is thus a dangerous unseeded player in this draw. Signs from Washington, where he made the semis, suggest that Nishikori could be starting to find some form, but a retirement followed in round 2 of his next tournament (Toronto), so I’m not sure what to expect from him. If he brings the Washington level of play to Flushing Meadows, I could see him giving Djokovic a scare, potentially going the distance to 5 sets, but ultimately I do think Djokovic would win it. He leads a dominant h2h over Nishikori 17-2 and by round 3 would be locked in and playing stronger tennis than in his earlier rounds. Karatsev and De Minaur are the seeded players Djokovic could face in Round 4, but neither are in particularly great form coming into this event, having only won 1 hard court singles match between them in the events post Wimbledon. Therefore I don’t see either of them making it this far and instead I’m backing Jordan Thompson. He was a surprise package making the Round of 16 at last years US Open and with the draw he has I could see him doing it again. If it is Thompson instead of the seeds, I still can’t see him troubling the World No.1, with the form Novak has been showing all year at Slam level.
Spearheading the other end of this quarter is the big serving Italian Matteo Berrettini. He starts his campaign against the experienced Frenchman Jeremy Chardy - not an easy opponent for Round 1. If he gets past that, and I think he will, he’ll be fine to Round 3, but there could face a stern test. Fognini would be the seeded player he could face, but I don’t see Fognini getting that far. Instead I think it could be either Vasek Pospisil (a US Open Quarterfinalist last year) or the Belarussian Ilya Ivashka, who just won his first ATP title yesterday in Winston Salem, and so is a man in form. I think the Belarussian can carry the momentum from last week into this and make the Round 3 showdown with Berrettini. However, I have a feeling that he may start to show some fatigue after playing a full week of matches every day last week, especially if either of his early rounds here are particularly long encounters. That could give Berrettini the edge. In the Round of 16, a juicy encounter would beckon with Hubert Hurkacz. The Polishman is having a breakout season, winning his biggest title to date in Miami and famously knocking out Federer on Centre court to reach the semi finals of Wimbledon. He has shown some form in the warm up events to suggest he could have another big run at Grand Slam level and so I think we will see this rematch of the Wimbledon Semi Final, and whilst Berrettini won at Wimbledon in 4 sets, I can see Hurkacz being the victor in 4 or 5 on this occasion.
Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Winner: Novak Djokovic
QUARTER 2:
Projected: Alexander Zverev (4) vs. Denis Shapovalov (7)
H2H: Zverev leads their h2h 4-2
Alex Zverev leads Quarter 2 and will be seen as Djokovic’s biggest threat to the title. He is the in-form man of the moment, having played 2 events on hard courts since Wimbledon - the Tokyo Olympics and Cincinnati - and won both. What makes those wins even more remakable is the level of opposition Zverev had to beat to win the gold and the Cincinnati title - in Tokyo he defeated Djokovic and Khachanov comfortably in the final two rounds and in Cincinnati defeated Top 10 players Ruud, Tstsipas and Rublev. He also has a kind-ish draw here to play his way into contention. I can’t see his Round 1-3 opponents - Querrey and then likely Pouille in Round 2 & Bublik in Round 3 causing him much concern. Bublik has the game to be a danger to Zverev, but isn’t consistent enough for me to spring an upset - especially with the form Zverev is currently in. Round 4 will be a stiffer test, where he could play either seeded players Gael Monfils or Jannik Sinner, or perhaps even the unseeded home favourite Steve Johnson. I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson did make a surprise run to the last 16, but for me I’m going to go with Sinner to play Zverev. Their h2h is level at one apeice but for me Zverev has the edge on hard courts and so I would expect him to win and make that h2h 2-1 in his favour. I think Zverev looks the real deal and could conserve a fair amount of energy in coming through these rounds, which will come in handy when it gets to the latter stages of the tournament.
Denis Shapovalov rounds out this quarter and is having a stellar season himself, reaching his first Slam Semi Final at Wimbledon this summer. However the return to hard courts following that has not been fruitful, with the Canadian losing in the first round of his last 3 events. I do think, as a result, he is vulnerable to the upset, but not in the first two rounds against Delbonis and then either Carballas Baena/Paul. Round 3 is where I could see Shapovalov struggling, as he will come up against the big hitting Olympic Silver Medallist Karen Khachanov. I can see him exacting his revenge on Shapovalov for beating him at Wimbledon in that epic 5 set Quarter Final match. In Round 4 the winner of Shapolov/Khachanov will, I think, go up against Pablo Carreno Busta (PCB) - the Olympic Bronze Medallist. PCB would have to navigate a mini section, which I think contains several cause for concerns: Korda, Mussetti and Opelka to name a few, but I think he will just about have enough to overcome those hurdles. I think PCB will be the fresher of the players, if Round 3 between Khachanov and Shapovalov goes the distance, and that will be enough for the Spaniard to make it through to the US Open Quarter Finals yet again.
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
Winner: Alexander Zverev
QUARTER 3:
Projected: Andrey Rublev (5) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (3)
H2H: Tsitsipas leads their h2h 5-4
Rublev sits at the top of Quarter 3 and since breaking through last season he hasn’t really stopped. He remains the man with the most tour wins this season, having reached the Quarter Finals or better in all but 4 of the events he has played this year, excluding the Olympics. His recent record at Grand Slam level is also formidable, making at least the 4th round in 6 of the last 7 Slam events he has participated in. That consistency will help him navigate his early round opponents (the big serving Karolic in Round 1 and then either Duckworth/Martinez in Round 2). However, in Round 3, I expect he will end up facing home favourite Frances Tiafoe. They have never played each other on tour, but did play one another at the US Open in juniors, which Tiafoe won in 3 close sets. Both players have come on leaps and bounds from those days, but I have a sneaky feeling that Tiafoe might spring an upset here. Tiafoe is a showman, who loves to play on the big courts in front of fans and has shown promise in recent weeks, defeating Tsitsipas at Wimbledon, Shapovalov on his home turf in Toronto and Murray in Winston Salem. With him being American, I can see this match going on Rod Laver, if it materialises, and I think the support he will have from home fans will help spur Tiafoe on to a surprise victory. The winner of this encounter will likely play another talented youngster in Felix Auger-Aliassime (FAA). Although FAA will likely have to navigate Bautista Agut or Kyrgios in Round 3, I think the Canadian has shown enough consistency across this season to come through that and beat whoever he ends up facing in the Round of 16.
At the other end of the draw lies Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek is having a tremendous season as well, making the Semi Finals in Australia and more notably the Final at the French Open back in May. His Round 1 match is the pick of the bunch, as he’ll start his campaign against Britain’s Andy Murray. Being a Brit myself, I would love to see Murray cause an upset, but I don’t think physically he is there yet to challenge someone of Tsitsipas’s quality over best of 5 sets. I expect the match to be close and maybe go 4 or even 5, but I think Tsitsipas will come through it to play Mannarino/Herbert in Round 2. Win that, and I think he will, then he will likely play another Brit in Cameron Norrie, although he will have to navigate a difficult Round 1 vs. Carlos Alcaraz - a youngster tipped for greatness, who is coming into this having just made the Semi Finals of Winston Salem last week. If it is Norrie vs. Tsitsipas, I think it will be a closer encounter than their last match up on the clay, but I feel ultimately end up the same result, with Tsitsipas the victor. Garin or Humbert are his seeded Round 4 opponents, but watch out for unseeded Frenchman Benoit Paire. Although, he can be erratic, he has found the winning formula again in recent weeks, after a consist run of defeats. He has beaten Shapovalov & Isner in the past couple tournaments, and although he lost against them, he did push both Rublev and Ruud very close in their recent matches as well. I’m backing Paire to carry that form into the US Open and be another surprise addition to the Round of 16 lineup, where I think his luck will run out against Tsitsipas.
Prediction: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas
QUARTER 4:
Projected: Casper Ruud (8) vs. Daniil Medvedev (2)
H2H: Medvedev leads their h2h 2-0
Casper Ruud is the No.8 seed and sits at the top of this final quarter of the draw. The clay court specialist has won a lot of matches this year to get into the Top 8 seedings for the first time at a Slam. He can feel good about his draw as well. Although Tsonga in Round 1 sounds scary, the Frenchman is having a tough season, not having won an ATP main draw match since Marseille back in March and thus I can’t see him causing Ruud trouble here. Round 2 is winnable for Ruud against Taberner/Van de Zandschlupp, as is Round 3, where he could play Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - another player who has struggled for wins in recent tournaments. Round 4, though, is where the big test comes for the Norweigan. Isner and Nakashima face off in Round 1 and are both in great form, the former winning Atlanta and making the Semis in Toronto, whilst the latter has made the finals at both Los Cabos and Atlanta. Both American, they will have strong crowd support and could trouble Ruud on a big court, if they get there. For me though, I’m leaning towards Schwartzman being the Round of 16 opponent for Ruud. Although not in as spectacular form as the American duo, he has been playing some good stuff and I just think he has the game to cause Isner/Nakashima problems in the 3rd round matchup. I’m expecting Ruud to face Schwartzman and the Argentinian to take it in a close hard fought battle.
Closing out this quarter and the US Open draw as a whole is No.2 seed Daniil Medvedev. Alongside Djokovic and Zverev, he has to be considered a favourite for this title, as the Russian has comfortably beat some top quality opposition on his way to the title in Toronto and the semis of Cincinnati in his past 2 tournaments - beating Isner with the loss of 4 games (6-2 6-2), beating Carreno Busta with the loss of only 2 games (6-1 6-1). He also has very fond memories of this particular major, as it was here where he made his big breakthrough at Slam level, when he made the final back in 2019 and pushed Nadal close in 5 hard fought sets. All of this, I feel, sets Medvedev up for another deep run here. Gasquet is his opponent in Round 1 and although he played some good stuff at Winston Salem last week, I can’t see him troubling the big serving Russian. A 2nd round against Koepfer or Halys is a comfortable matchup for Medvedev and one he should win easily. Cilic could be the player Medvedev faces in Round 3 - two big servers but Medvedev I feel is the better mover and that will be important and prove pivotal. In the fourth round, Medvedev could play either Grigor Dimitrov or Dan Evans. I don’t know if it is the British bias at play, but I am thinking Evans can achieve his best effort at a Slam and make Round 4 to play Medvedev. Although the Brit is still getting back to full fitness following COVID, I think he has the variety and versatility in his game to trouble the opponents he faces in Rounds 1-3. Whether Evans can prove me right remains to be seen, but regardless Medvedev will win the Round of 16 battle.
Prediction: Diego Schwartzman vs. Daniil Medvedev
Winner: Daniil Medvedev
Semi Finals:
Medvedev def. Tsitsipas
Zverev def. Djokovic
Finals:
Medvedev def. Zverev
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