Wimbledon 2021 Men’s Draw: Preview & Predictions

On Monday, after almost 2 years, Wimbledon returns to the Tennis calendar and boy have I missed it. 128 men and 128 women will be vying to get their hands on the crème de la crème of Grand Slams, write their names in history and of course win the humongous prize money that comes with it – £1.7million sure isn’t bad.

Ahead of the tournament, I will attempt the difficult task of previewing both singles draws quarter by quarter and making some predictions for what may play out over the coming fortnight, starting with the Men’s…

QUARTER 1:

Projected: Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Andrey Rublev (5)

H2H: N/A – they have never played one another on tour

Novak Djokovic, the defending champion and current World No.1, sits at the summit of the draw and will, I imagine, be quite pleased at how this draw has panned out. Djokovic starts his title defence against a talented young Brit in Jack Draper – who beat Sinner and Bublik, in a stunning run to the Quarter Finals of Queens 2 weeks ago, in just his 2nd ATP tour level tournament. I think the Brit could start strong, and with the crowd backing on Centre Court maybe even clinch a set off the No.1, but the occasion will ultimately tell and with the form Novak is in, I expect him to work his way into the match and win fairly comfortably.

He could then face Kevin Anderson in the 2nd, a player who has struggled for consistency this past year and who Djokovic boasts a healthy h2h record over – a 9-2 W/L record, 4-0 on Grass. Davidovich Fokina is the projected 3rd round opponent, but I think he will be an early seeded casualty, as Kudla has come into form on grass this year and could cause an upset. Even if it is Kudla in Round 3, Djokovic should be too strong for him and will then likely face Monfils – a player he has beaten 16 times consecutively, last losing to Monfils back in 2004.

At the other end of this quarter sits Rublev – a player who has continued his stellar 2020 form through into 2021, with only Tsitsipas having won more matches YTD than the young Russian. I am fairly confident in Rublev reaching Round 4 – Harris and Fognini have the game to trouble Rublev in earlier rounds, but Harris can become quite erratic when down in matches, whilst Grass is Fognini’s weakest surface. With the consistency and current level of performance Rublev has shown all year, I do believe he can come through these matchups unscathed.

His biggest challenge for me will come in the Round of 16, where he could face Jannik Sinner or Diego Schwartzman. I’m more inclined to pick Schwartzman of them, as Sinner, despite his talents, is still finding his feet on grass. If the Rublev-Schwartzman match up materialises, it will no doubt be a blockbuster, as Schwartzman comes into this in red-hot form too, following his French Open run to the Quarter Finals. They have played each other only once before, back in 2017 at the French Open, with Schwartzman coming through victorious in 5 sets that day. I expect a similarly long match on this occasion too, but for me clay and grass are very different surfaces & both players have developed their levels astronomically since their last encounter, so I don’t think we can read too much into that result

Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs. Andrey Rublev

Winner: Novak Djokovic

QUARTER 2:

Projected: Stefanos Tsitsipas (3) vs. Roberto Bautista Agut (8)

H2H: Tsitsipas leads their h2h 2-0

Tsitsipas heads this quarter and I am nervous for the World No.3’s prospects here. He has won more matches than anyone in 2021 and been making big in-roads in the Slams too, reaching the Semis of the Australian Open and the Final of the French this year, but here at Wimbledon, on his least favourite surface, I have my doubts.

Tsitsipas hasn’t played a match since the French Open Final defeat to Djokovic, so the big question mark for me regarding him will be if mentally his is able to put that defeat behind him, reset and go again so soon after– a sign of a true champion. He’ll need to be on top form to get past a difficult Round 1 opponent in Frances Tiafoe, a former top 30 player who has already won a title on grass this year in Nottingham. If Tsitsipas can navigate that, his draw doesn’t get any easier, potentially having to face former Wimbledon Quarterfinalist Vasek Pospisil in the 2nd, big hitting Khachanov in the 3rd and then either home hopeful Dan Evans or in-form Alex De Minaur (currently in the Eastbourne final at the time of writing) in Round4. With no grass preparation, I can’t see Tsitsipas getting through this and thus expect an unlikely Quarterfinalist to emerge from this mini section.

Closing out this quarter is the No.8 seed Roberto Bautista Agut. Like Tsitsipas, Bautista Agut’s game is much more suited to clay – however unlike the Greek he does have form at these Championships, surprisingly making it to the Semi Finals on his last outing here back in 2019 – his best Grand Slam result to date. His draw is relatively smooth sailing, but one big obstacle in his way to the Quarters, a man myself and most other people I’m sure were looking out for when this draw was being revealed, is Andy Murray. Murray is one of the best returners out there and has the game to beat anyone, even if physically he is still working his way back to his best levels pre hip surgery. I think this match up will happen in the 4th Round and I would not be surprised at all if Murray makes it through, despite his lack of matches in recent years – if anyone is to defy the odds it’d be Murray. However, we don’t know how Murray’s body will hold up in best of 5 set matches and therefore he is a bit too much of a question mark, so I’m going to go against my heart, being British, and pick Bautista Agut. He won their last Grand Slam encounter at the Australian Open back in 2019, so history could well repeat itself here.

Prediction: Dan Evans vs. Roberto Bautista Agut

Winner: Roberto Bautista Agut

QUARTER 3:

Projected: Matteo Berrettini (7) vs. Alexander Zverev (4)

H2H: Zverev leads their h2h 3-1

Berrettini is a man in form coming into these Championships and for me is in serious contention for the title. I watched his matches at Queens, where he won his 2nd title in 2021 and his serving stats were insane. It is the biggest weapon in his game and if he can bring the accuracy and shot making he showed there to Wimbledon, it’s going to take something pretty special to stop the young Italian. He also has a nice draw to work his way into the tournament. He has Guido Pella in Round 1, who struggles on the grass with a career win % on the surface of just 38%, followed by a Qualifer in the 2nd. His seeded Round 3 opponent is John Isner, a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist who can cause trouble with his similarly big serve. Expect that match to happen with a tonne of aces, but based on form and considering Berrettini has had more prep on Grass this year, I think the Italian can make it through. There is a lot of talented youth that could meet Berrettini in the 4th – Karatsev, Popyrin, Ruud to name but a few, but I don’t think any of them has the potential to upset Berrettini – maybe in early rounds but not in the 4th when players will by then have found their groove.

Alex Zverev is the player that sits at the other end of this quarter. The German, for me, has flown a bit under the radar this past year, but he is having quite the season, especially at Grand Slam level. Zverev used to be a player to me who struggled to bring the degree of consistency he’d show in Masters events and below into the Grand Slams, but that is no longer the case. The German has made the 2nd week in each Slam he’s played since the previous Wimbledon back in the summer of 2019 and more recently had his best runs at Slam level reaching the Final of the US Open end of last year and the Semi Finals in the French Open a few weeks ago. His draw is relatively smooth in the early rounds but Round 4 poses the biggest challenge to Zverev. There he could play Ugo Humbert, the talented young Frenchman who beat Zverev in his only warm up tournament for Wimbledon last week in Halle. Or he could play Felix Auger-Aliassime (FAA), another talented youngster who has reached the final of Stuttgart and the semis of Halle in his most recent grass court warm up events. Also in this section we see the return to tennis of Nick Kyrgios – such an unpredictable player who has the talents to beat anybody, but for me he hasn’t got enough matches in him to sustain a long run here, so I think it will be one of the youngsters facing Zverev in Round 4. I’m predicting Humbert, but in this case Zverev will get his revenge, as pressure will be on for Humbert and I also think the Frenchman may feel the effects of tough long matches from earlier rounds against Kyrgios & FAA

Prediction: Matteo Berrettini vs. Alex Zverev

Winner: Matteo Berrettini

QUARTER 4:

Projected: Roger Federer (6) vs. Daniil Medvedev (2)

H2H: Federer leads their h2h 3-0

The big name in this bottom Quarter is the 20-time Grand Slam Champion Roger Federer. I would love nothing more than to see Federer, in the twilight of his tennis career, lift another Slam, and why not at Wimbledon, where he has been most prolific over the years, but the question is will he? Federer cited that the reason for withdrawing from the French Open, before his Round 4 meeting with Berrettini, was because he wanted to condition his body on grass and get into the best possible position for a deep run at these Championships. That could well have been a smart decision, as his draw is tricky. In Rounds 1 & 2 he could face two very experienced Frenchmen in Mannarino & Gasquet – both have made the 2nd week at Wimbledon on multiple occasions in the past with the latter a Semi Finalist back in 2015. Neither of these will be easy, but on grass Federer would still be favourite. In Round 3, Federer could then play in-form Cameron Norrie, who is winning so many matches this year and would be much higher up the rankings than his current position, maybe top 20, if it wasn’t for the rankings freeze (brought about by the pandemic) meaning previous year’s points stayed on. Expect that match to happen on Centre, with the crowd behind Norrie and it to be a long one, maybe a 5 setter, but I think again Federer can find a way through. In Round 4 he will face Querrey/Carreno Busta, both players with experience of going deep at Grand Slams – Querrey is playing his way into form in the warm up events, so could well be the opponent for Federer here. Again I think Federer can get through, I mean it’s bloody Roger Federer!

Closing out the draw is 2nd seed Daniil Medvedev. Grass is not the Russian’s best surface - his game is much more suited to hard courts - but he is in a good run of form and adapted well this year to clay, a surface he has also struggled with in previous years, to reach the French Open Quarter Finals, so why not the same for the Grass? His recent win in Mallorca is a sign that Medvedev is finding a way to be effective on this surface. The big question is how quickly he will be able to recover in time for his 1st round on Tuesday, as he will need to be on form to beat his opponent Jan Lennard Struff. That is a seriously 50-50 match up, with Struff the more rested player and the one who won their most recent encounter on grass in Halle last week. However, I just have a gut feel Medvedev can come through that. It doesn’t get much easier for Medvedev after that either, as big challenges come in Rounds 3 or 4 against former Wimbledon Finalist Marin Cilic and former Wimbledon Semi-Finalist Grigor Dimitrov respectively. Verdasco is also hugely experienced and could be a surprise opponent for Medvedev here, but for me I think Cilic offers the biggest threat, having played himself into form on grass winning Stuttgart and reaching the quarter finals of Queens in his last two warm up tournaments. Get through that and Medvedev is a Wimbledon Quarter Finalist for the 1st time.

Prediction: Roger Federer vs. Daniil Medvedev

Winner: Roger Federer

Semi Finals:

Djokovic def. Bautista Agut

Berrettini def. Federer

Finals:

Djokovic def. Berrettini