The Women’s Singles Event at the Tokyo Olympics looks set to provide great entertainment, with a draw littered with great high-quality match ups from the offset. Although we are missing a number of experienced players (Halep, Serena, Kerber to name a few), the draw still feels extremely competitive and it will be exciting to follow it as the days go by.
Below are my predictions on how I think things could pan out:
QUARTER 1:
Projected: Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Barbora Krejcikova (8)
H2H: Barty leads their h2h 1-0
Ash Barty headlines the women’s draw and will be looking to carry on the momentum she has been riding all season – maintaining the no.1 ranking through winning 4 titles on 3 different surfaces – the latest being her 2nd Grand Slam title at Wimbledon. She will be entering this tournament with form and confidence and I think that will set her in good stead for another deep run at these Games. Her opening opponent will be Sara Sorribes Tormo, who is having a strong season of her own, particularly on hard courts, winning 75% of her matches played this year. However Barty is winning 88% of her hard court matches and so I think will have too much for the Spaniard. In the next round she could face Ferro/Sevastova (a great 1st round tie that is tough to predict). I’m leaning towards experience and picking Sevastova as Barty’s 2nd round foe, but again the Australian will handle the variety thrown at her and navigate that hurdle. Standing in her way to a QF spot would then likely be another experienced Tour player in Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Their h2h is evenly poised at 3-3, 2-2 on hard courts, so it could be a tough battle, if this match up does materialise, but I’m thinking Barty in that situation would come through…just.
At the other end of this quarter sits the 2021 French Open Champion Barbora Krejcikova. Anyone who thought Krejcikova winning the French may have been a fluke or a flash in the pan will be eating humble pie right now, as in her 2 other tournaments since she has made the 2nd week of Wimbledon for the first time and won another WTA title in her home country in Prague. Include her win in Strasbourg immediately before the French Open and that’s a healthy record of 20 wins and 1 defeat in the past 3 months for the Czech. Although there are a number of talented youngsters who stand in her way of making the Quarter Finals (Yastremska/Fernandez in Round 2, potentially Pegula in Round 3), the form Krejcikova is in right now is impossible to ignore. Before this year, she was known as a top player in Doubles, but not in Singles. Now I feel she has managed to adapt her game and use her doubles prowess to help close points out in Singles and I think that can only lead to her having sweet success in the short term.
Prediction: Ashleigh Barty vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Winner: Ashleigh Barty
QUARTER 2:
Projected: Aryna Sabalenka (3) vs. Garbiñe Muguruza (7)
H2H: Muguruza leads their h2h 2-1
Sabalenka sits atop Quarter 2 and is another player who is having a terrific 2021 season, having won 2 WTA titles and achieved her best results at Grand Slam level in the 3 Grand Slams played so far this year, the most notable being a run to the 2021 Wimbledon Semi Finals. Her Olympics campaign isn’t the smoothest but I don’t see her, in the form she is in, having too much trouble against her first opponent (Magda Linette), whose hard court season so far is 1 win and 1 defeat, both coming in Miami. Sabalenka’s hard court season in comparison is 14 wins, 5 defeats. In the 2nd round, Sabalenka will face either Donna Vekic or Caroline Garcia - both women are top players, who on their best day, could very well beat Sabalenka and force the Belarusian into erratic errors. However, both are trying to rediscover their best form and so in my opinion not in a position at present to really trouble Sabalenka. Her last 16 opponent is then likely to be Elena Rybakina. The young Kazakh has put in some memorable performances all season, the most notable to my mind being a run to the French Open Quarter Finals, where she beat Serena Williams enroute. Her H2h with Sabalenka, however, makes for grim reading (3-0 in favour of Sabalenka) and I feel in current form Sabalenka would likely make that 4 wins if this matchup happens.
Garbiñe Muguruza is the seeded player that closes out this quarter and always a player I struggle to predict, as her A game can trouble anyone in the draw and on hard courts her serve and groundstrokes can be lethal, but she has struggled managing a leg injury throughout the season. Kudermetova, Muguruza’s 1st round opponent, will certainly test any discomfort Muguruza may or may not feel from the offset. That could be a lengthy battle, but based on their h2h history and based on the talent I know both players possess, I’d give Muguruza the edge. However, her draw doesn’t get any easier from there. Her next opponent could be Qiang Wang, a tricksy player who has managed to bring errors out of the Muguruza game in their past match ups and leads their h2h 2-0, both on hard courts. Navigate that and Muguruza’s reward could then be the formidable Petra Kvitova, who again Muguruza struggles to play against, winning only one of the 6 matches they have played. I think Wang or Kvitova could cause the upset here, and as a result I’m going to go with Kvitova making the Quarter Finals instead.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Petra Kvitova
Winner: Petra Kvitova
QUARTER 3:
Projected: Karolina Pliskova (5) vs. Elina Monfils (4)
H2H: Pliskova leads their h2h 5-4
Karolina Pliskova will look to continue the form that took her to a 1st Wimbledon Final in her last tournament, when she steps up to play Cornet in her first match of these Olympics. Cornet is a very experienced player with the game to trouble top players, but her form has been hit and miss this season (15 wins, 17 losses) and her record vs. Pliskova is telling: the Czech has won 3 of their 4 meetings on tour, the one Cornet victory coming way back in 2013 in Guangzhou. I think Pliskova will improve that record with another win and go through to Round 2, but from there her draw looks very challenging. In the 2nd round, she could face Ons Jabeur – the tricksy Tunisian who is having her best season on tour, winning her first WTA title, and the first title for anyone from her country in the sport, in Birmingham. Their h2h is slightly in favour of Pliskova (2-1), but all 3 matches have been close and gone the distance. I expect a repeat and could well see Jabeur clinching victory and evening the h2h to 2-2. Whoever wins that match will likely play the winner of Jelena Ostapenko v Jennifer Brady in the last 16 and I suspect the Pliskova/Jabeur victor to win that one also, as Ostapenko is error prone and Brady hasn’t played for some time, missing the grass season altogether to recover from an injury sustained at this year’s French Open.
Elina Svitolina, now Elina Monfils, after getting married to Gael Monfils last week in Switzerland, is the other Top 8 seeded player in this quarter and is another star difficult to predict, as she has had a pretty muted season this year by her usually high standards – her best result being a Semi Final showing in both Miami and Stuttgart. I think she has a draw where she can play her way into the tournament, as her opener is against Siegemund, who is 20-15 for the season, 4-6 on hard courts, and her 2nd round opponent is likely to be Aijla Tomljanovic, who she has a healthy h2h record over – Svitolina has won all their 3 previous encounters. The biggest challenge though comes in the last 16 where Svitolina could play Maria Sakkari. Both players have had similar seasons from a win/loss perspective, although Sakkari has done slightly better and made better inroads at larger tournaments, such as the French Open where she reached the semi finals, before losing to eventual winner Krejcikova. Also Sakkari has history on her side when it comes to their h2h winning their last 2 matchups, both on hard court. I can see this match up happening and it going the way of the Greek.
Prediction: Ons Jabeur vs. Maria Sakkari
Winner: Maria Sakkari
QUARTER 4:
Projected: Iga Swiatek (6) vs. Naomi Osaka (2)
H2H: Osaka leads their h2h 1-0
The final quarter of the Women’s singles opens with former French Open champion Iga Swiatek. The young Polish star has backed up her Maiden Slam victory in 2020 well with a solid 2021 season, in which she has won 2 more Tour Titles and cemented herself a place inside the World’s Top 10. She will be one of a number of young stars taking part in their first ever Olympic Games and she has a nice opening round on her debut against Mona Barthel – a player struggling for wins having lost 9 of her last 10 matches. Swiatek should come through that comfortably and in Round 2 could face her first obstacle in either Paula Badosa or Kristina Mladenovic. Form would suggest Paula Badosa, who is having her best season on tour, having won 26 matches YTD. However 17 of those have come on clay, so it will be interesting to see if she can translate her strong clay court form onto the hard courts. I think she can, but maybe not in the very first hard court tournament back, and so I think Swiatek can also get through this encounter unscathed. In the last 16, I wouldn’t be surprised by any of the four possible players it could be making it that far to face Swiatek: Putintseva, Podoroska, Aleksandrova or Mertens. It is a tricky one to call. Of those players, Alexandrova is the only one to have beaten Swiatek – this victory coming at the start of the year in Australia, so Swiatek may be secretly hoping she doesn’t play the Russian, but I think whoever the opponent Swiatek has the weaponry and more match wins under her belt this year to handle the challenge
Closing out the draw as the No.2 seed is Naomi Osaka, who returns to the tour after missing the grass season, following her retirement from the French Open, citing mental health reasons. I’m really happy for her to be back competing, but hope it isn’t premature and she is coming back to tennis and the pressures it brings, because she feels ready to and not because she feels she has to, with her being the poster girl for the Olympic Games, since it is taking place in her home country: Japan. She has a nice draw to play her way into this, which I’m sure she will greatly appreciate, having not played competitively in a few months. She begins her campaign against Zheng, who has lost double the amount of matches she has won this year (12 losses, 6 wins). She then could play Golubic in Round 2, before playing Vondrousova in the last 16. Kiki Bertens is the other seed in this mini section, but has struggled to find any consistency on tour in recent months, so I think is the seed most vulnerable to an early upset. Golubic and Vondrousova can provide a challenge, but I think Osaka, rejuvenated from the break from tennis, with a desire to perform well in a home tournament, will have the drive to win whatever the matchup and I feel come the end of the week Osaka will be in contention for medals
Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs. Naomi Osaka
Winner: Naomi Osaka
Semi Finals:
Barty def. Kvitova
Osaka def. Sakkari
Finals:
Osaka def. Barty
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