With Wimbledon and the grass season now over, the tennis calendar returns to hard courts to conclude a packed summer of sport. However, before players jet off to the US to compete in the pre-US Open tournaments, there’s just the small matter of THE OLYMPICS to contend with.
64 men and 64 women will battle for medals and with many players, particularly on the men’s side, either absent through choice/injury/COVID, we have two talented but open draws, and it wouldn’t be shocking if we see some surprise names gracing the medals podium in 1 weeks time.
I will again attempt to give my thoughts/predictions on what we could expect, starting with the men’s singles:
QUARTER 1:
Projected: Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Andrey Rublev (5)
H2H: N/A – they have never played one another on tour
Novak Djokovic is the man of the moment in tennis right now, having just won Wimbledon to clinch GS no. 20 and equal the Grand Slam tally of both Roger and Rafa. Considering how Novak has dominated the game over the past decade and a half, it is surprising he holds only one Olympic singles medal to his name, and it isn’t even Gold: a bronze he won at the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. He has spoken explicitly about wanting to be the first ever tennis star, male or female, to achieve the Golden Slam: winning all 4 Grand Slams and Olympic Gold in the same year, and with his current form and draw, you wouldn’t put it past him. He starts his quest for Gold against Hugo Dellien - a player he’s never faced but not someone I could see causing the World No.1 any real trouble. Lennard Struff in the 2nd and potentially Musetti in the Round of 16 will provide tougher challenges, particularly the Italian, who tested Djokovic in an up and down 5 set thriller in their last encounter at this years French Open. However, I’d still expect Djokovic to find a way to navigate both these tricky matchups and set himself in good stead for the latter stages.
At the other end of this quarter sits Rublev, a talented young Russian, who has just got better and better in the past few seasons and is now comfortably inside the World’s Top 10. He holds the 2nd most wins on tour this year behind Tsitsipas at the time of writing (Norrie could edge ahead with more victories in Los Cabos this week), and so is also a man in red hot form. The draw gods have not been kind to him though, with a tricky opener against the experienced Kei Nishikori. The winner of this, I believe, will reach the Quarter Final to play Djokovic. Monfils is the only other real danger in this mini section, but he hasn’t been in the best of form of late. Of the two I’m actually leaning towards Nishikori. The Japanese talisman reached the Quarter Finals at the 2012 Olympics in London and won the bronze in the most recent Games in Rio in 2016, so has much more Olympic experience to draw upon than Rublev, who is competing in his first. Also the fact that the Games are being hosted in Tokyo – Nishikori’s home country – will also provide an advantage. Not as much as it could have, if spectators were allowed to attend, but I still think the hype around the event will cause Nishikori to raise his level, inspiring him to do well and make another Quarter Final appearance.
Prediction: Novak Djokovic vs. Kei Nishikori
Winner: Novak Djokovic
QUARTER 2:
Projected: Alexander Zverev (4) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (7)
H2H: Zverev leads their h2h 1-0
Alexander Zverev headlines the 2nd Quarter and of the seeded players, he will be one of the happiest with his draw – the highest ranked player he can face before the Round of 16 is no. 113 Daniel Elahi Galan! I expect therefore for Zverev to comfortably come through the early rounds, conserving energy and more importantly building confidence. In the Round of 16, he could face either big hitting Georgian Nikoloz Basilashvili or the young Italian Lorenzo Sonego. This is a tough one to call, but I’d give Sonego the slight edge, given the Italian is in slightly better form than the Georgian (Basilashvili has lost his last 3 consecutive matches). Either opponent will pose Zverev a challenge, but the German has vastly improved his composure at the big tournaments in recent years and I feel convinced he can make a deep run here.
Hubert Hurkacz rounds out this quarter and his draw is not the easiest. Fucsovics is his opening round opponent and leads his h2h with Hurkacz 2-0 – although both those encounters did come back in 2018. If Hurkacz overcomes that hurdle, he could then play surprise British hopeful Liam Broady, who is having a breakthrough season on the ATP tour, in Round 2 & then the hugely experienced Jeremy Chardy in Round 3. These matches will test Hurkacz, but he will be coming into this feeling on cloud 9 following his amazing run at Wimbledon to the Semi Finals, beating Federer enroute in an epic match up on Centre Court, so I feel good about his chances. His game just seems to be in a great place right now and if he can bring that Wimbledon form to Tokyo, he will certainly make the Quarter Finals.
Prediction: Alexander Zverev vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Winner: Alexander Zverev
QUARTER 3:
Projected: Diego Schwartzman (8) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (3)
H2H: Tied at 1-1
Diego Schwartzman is the no.8 seed in Tokyo and is another beneficiary of a kind draw – like Zverev he also can’t face a Top 100 player until the last 16. I feel the same as with Zverev, that Schwartzman can play himself in with this kind start. In the round of 16 he will likely face a tough battle with Karen Khachanov. I was impressed with how Khachanov played in Wimbledon and saw signs in his game that he may be starting to rediscover the kind of form that took him into the world’s top 10 less than 2 years ago. I think this matchup will materialise and Khachanov edge out Schwartzman in a lengthy 3 set epic.
At the foot of this quarter sits the no. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas. Whilst the Greek didn’t particularly shine on the grass - as suspected given it is his weakest surface – his form outside of that has been phenomenal, winning more matches than any other player on Tour. He is having a season to remember and coming back to more favoured surfaces I could see him notching a few more wins to an already impressive season tally. He starts his Olympics campaign against the tall and vastly experienced German Philipp Kohlschreiber, who is having quite an average season, it has to be said - the German is struggling to win matches, not winning more than 2 in a row all season. Winning breeds confidence and based on their form you’d have to back Tsitsipas to come through this one. A rematch against Tiafoe, who beat the Greek at Wimbledon only a few weeks ago, could be on the cards in Round 2 - a very juicy tie, but back on hard courts I think Tsitsipas has the edge and can exact his revenge. In the Round of 16, he could face the talented young Frenchman Ugo Humbert. Humbert narrowly leads the pair’s h2h 1-0 – the victory coming on hard court at the Paris Masters last year. For me, this would be the hardest match to call, but going by gut feel I just think Humbert can cause the upset if the match up happens
Prediction: Karen Khachanov vs. Ugo Humbert
Winner: Karen Khachanov
QUARTER 4:
Projected: Pablo Carreno Busta (6) vs. Daniil Medvedev (2)
H2H: Medvedev leads their h2h 3-1
The final quarter of the Men’s singles begins with Pablo Carreno Busta – a very consistent player who has for some time now been in and around the World’s Top 10 in the rankings. His mini section is stacked with quality players and so his credentials will definitely be tested here in Tokyo. His opener against Tennys Sandgren is the easiest of his potential match ups – a player with vast experience on tour, but is struggling for form. In Round 2, he is likely to face former US Open Champion Marin Cilic – a player who not only leads their h2h (4 wins to 0), but a player who will also be feeling confident in his game again following a productive grass season, that saw him reach the Quarter Finals of Queens and win his first ATP title in 3 years at Stuttgart. Despite the stats, I’m sticking with the Spaniard – the 4 Cilic wins all came pre 2019, so are not reflective of where both players are at today – although I admit this is as 50-50 as it gets. If Carreno Busta comes through, his reward could be the in-form young Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime or another Grand Slam Champion in Andy Murray. These two players face each other in Round 1 and I’m convinced whoever wins will make it to Round 3 to face Carreno Busta/Cilic. Auger-Aliassime has the form, but no one fights like Murray, who is here defending his 2 Gold medals from London and Rio and will be determined to not go out early in what could very well be his last Olympic Games. I think Murray can cause a surprise upset over the Canadian and get a couple wins, but that will take a toll on him physically and I’m not sure if his body is at the level needed yet to navigate such a difficult quarter and go deep in the draw.
Rounding out the Quarter and the draw as a whole is no. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev. The Russian is having a stellar season of his own and has shown that on hard surfaces he is a player to fear, having won 17 of the 20 matches he has played on hard courts this year – the 3 defeats coming to Djokovic in Melbourne, Lajovic in Rotterdam and Bautista Agut in Miami. He has a tricky customer in Round 1, facing the talented and unpredictable Bublik, but if he gets through that, which I think he will, then his draw looks more pleasant. The seed in his way of reaching the Quarter Finals is Fognini – a player who Medvedev leads 3-1 over in their h2h and someone he hasn’t lost to since 2017, back when Medvedev’s ranking was in the 60s. I think the Russian will find his feet quickly back on hard courts and comfortably reach the Quarter Finals
Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Daniil Medvedev
Winner: Daniil Medvedev
Semi Finals:
Djokovic def. Zverev
Medvedev def. Khachanov
Finals:
Djokovic def. Medvedev
Comments